TURN A LIGHT ON: ELECTRICITY SECTOR REFORM IN IRAQ

The core dynamic of Iraq’s electricity crisis is simple: an ever-widening gap between supply and demand. There is no accurate estimate for actual demand due to its suppression by institutional and economic constraints on consumption and the lack of accurate historical data since the 1990s. In two recent studies, though, the authors have estimated demand at anywhere between 50 and 70 percent higher than originally anticipated by the ministry’s Master Plan (Fig. 1), taking into account factors

such as shifting demographics and suppressed demand.8 Total peak demand is likely to reach anywhere between 50,000 to 60,000 MW by 2030 while the ministry forecasts peak demand as a mere 35,000 MW.9 In additionto continuous population growth (Fig. 2), the substantial jump in GDP growth after 2003, mainly due to the increase in crude oil prices, has contributed to the increase in the demand for electricity

(